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121107 Initial Reaction to the 2008/2012 Swing

Initial Reaction to the 2008/2012 Swing



I have conducted an initial computation of the swing from the Obama/Biden margin in 2008 to 2012. Nationally, the Democratic ticket’s 2008 popular vote margin of about 7.2% will modestly narrow, probably to somewhere around 2.5% to 3.0% once all votes are in (for a swing of somewhere between about -4.7% and -4.2%). At the state level, the numbers will still bounce around a bit as the counting continues, but the basic landscape is now apparent: the Democrats saw only slight deterioration in the Deep South and New England, but Romney/Ryan made appreciable (though, obviously, insufficient) gains over McCain/Palin in the Midwest and West. Only in Alaska has Obama/Biden strongly improved on its 2008 margin, which is probably a function of Sarah Palin’s local appeal last time. Here is the preliminary breakdown: